From the AES study is this interesting graph as covered in an earlier article. Bryan Palmer has been looking at external effects to determine election outcomes. It may be that the internal effects are rate determining; of which policy is one.

By this graph most voters consider policy when casting votes. The parties and leaders come low in comparison in voting considerations. It may be as simple as bad policy losing elections. This could also explain why the Liberal Party is having problems of late, their policy has been haphazard, poorly thought out, electorally cynical and often arbitrary. Coupled with a politically engaged population bad policy may be the reason why a government will not get re-elected.

This suggests Australians are very sophisticated in their understanding and following of politics. I am more likely to be sympathetic to this symmetry of intrinsic effects than recessions or other politically external effects.
Cam Riley: South Sea Republic. Freedom, liberty, equity and an Australian Republic.