Via Penelope Trunk
, a study on the reasoning of entrepreneurs
[pdf warning]. The study's authors differentiate between Causal Reasoning and Effectual Reasoning where the former is the domain of the business manager and the latter the entrepreneur.
Causal Reasoning is described as being based on the logic; "To the extent that we can predict the future, we can control it." This is the risk management of market research, focus groups, etc.
Effectual Reasoning is based on; "To the extent that we can control the future, we do not need to predict it." This is the risk management of find customers and see where they take your product.
While causal reasoning is secure in that there will be capital around to do the expensive market research, effectual reasoning is more adaptive to an entrepreneurs reality of having no capital, no customers and consequently operating in an area of complete unpredictability. from the study:
Consciously, or unconsciously, they [entrepreneurs] act as if they believe that the future is not out there to be discovered, but that it gets created through the very strategies of the players. ... several of the expert entrepreneurs I studied explicitly stated that being in a market that could be predicted was not such a good idea, since there would always be someone smarter and with deeper pockets who would predict it better than they could.
Another pattern that the researchers discovered with effectual reasoning, and using U-Haul as a study, was that effectual reasoning limited the cost of failure;
Effectual reasoning may not necessarily increase the probability of success of new enterprises, but it reduces the costs of failure by enabling failure to occur earlier and at lower levels of investment.
An interesting study that speaks of how to manage a business under the initial limits of not knowing your market and within the boundaries of capital and income scarcity. However, the study seems to suggest that the mindset of the entrepreneur does not change with increasing capital, income and customers.
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Phoenix Eats Out
is the restaurant review site for Phoenix
and Old Town Scottsdale
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This is the list of the most popular restaurants pages from phoenixeatsout.com that have been viewed the most;
My personal favourite restaurants in Phoenix are AZ88
, Humble Pie
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Arizona is an outdoor state and has lots of hiking in the city and around the state. Phoenix is unusual for most cities in having several large mountains in the center of the city with great hiking. Anyone who comes to Phoenix has to do the Echo Canyon trail on Camelback
and the Summit Hike on Squaw Peak
or Piesta Peak. The views of the city, suburbs and surrounding mountains are wonderful from Camelback and Piesta Peak.
For more experienced hikers there is the McDowell Mountains in North Scottsdale that has several difficult and strenuous hikes in Tom's Thumb
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Alternate Australian Constitutions
Between 2004 and 2009 this site, southsearepublic.org
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One of the strongest aspects of it was the development of constitutions by those involved in the blog. These constitutions are the outcome:
The constitutions were built using principles from Montesquieu's separation of powers, the enlightnment's universal political rights and the ancient Athenian technology of sortition and choice by lot.
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South Sea Republic started in 2004 as an Australian constitutional blog in 2004 based on scoop software. It was an immigrative outgrowth of Kuro5hin. The archives for each year since then;
The articles are ordered by views.
Who Is Cam Riley
I am an Australian living in the United States as a permanent resident.
I am a software developer by trade and mostly work in Java and jump between middleware and front end.
I originally worked in the New York area of the United States in telecommunications before moving to Washington DC and
working in a mix of telecommunications, energy and ITS. I started my own software company before heading out to
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lost the .org URL to during a life event; however, it is under the www.australianflyingcorps.com
The AFC website has gone through several iterations since the 90s and the two most recent are Australian Flying Corps Archives(2004-2002)
Australian Flying Corps Archives(2002-1999)
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