Leadership and Electoral Popularity

"Keeping The Bastards Honest", a book edited by John Warhurst on the Australian Democrats, has some interesting graphs which correlate party popularity with the popularity of the party leader. It points towards the Australian electorate voting on Presidential lines.

The book is a bit old, and only discusses the first twenty years of the Australian Democrats, effectively ending in 1996, so hasn't any data on the post-Kernot Democrats. The Democrats up to 1996 had several popular and high profile leaders, Don Chipp, Janine Haines and Cheryl Kernot. Clive Bean argues that his has been a considerable part of the electoral success of the Democrats.

The table above shows the party leaders, rated by voters on a scale of one to ten. It also shows the popularity of the Democrats side by side with the Democratic leadership, and the leaders of the two major parties. Clive Bean writes;

... for it is often how popular the leader is relative to the party's current popularity that is crucial in assessing whether a leader is an electoral asset or liability.

Chipp was more popular than both major party leaders - and the Democrat party, which translated into electoral success for the Democrats, however he was on the nose by the mid-80s. Hanes replaced him, but the electoral collapse in 1993 co-incided with the leadership of Janet Powell and John Coulter. Bean writes;

Calculations from other analyses [of the 1993 election results] suggest that the leadership factor probably accounted for at least 2 percent of the Democrats' fall of 7.5 percent in the House of Representatives election and possibly twice that.

So Bean is saying an unpopular leader can account for a 25% to 50% drop in party popularity and consequent electoral results. This places the Pittwater by-election in some perspective. John Brogden was the Liberal Party leader, and was ousted by internal divisions and disunity.

The Liberal Party went into the Pittwater by-election without any established leader, and with party disunity the mass-media story of the previous months. The Liberal Party suffered a 25% swing against them, leading to an Independent winning a safe Liberal seat with the primary vote.

The next graph shows the Democrats' leadership rating against their vote in the House of Representatives.

It appears that Australia has had a voting system where the electorate votes along Presidential style lines for quite a while. Major and minor parties are unduly reliant upon popular and stable leadership. While these graphs show the electoral vote going up and down with the popularity of the Democrats leaders, it doesn't explain why the leaders are popular.
Permalink, Leadership and Electoral Popularity, Dec 2005, cam

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