cam, 296 words, 0 comments, Australian Car Industry, Automotive Industry, Holden, Alpha Platform

It appears that Holden may have lost the engineering for the RWD Alpha platform. This was to be a smaller sized car than the Commodore, probably 3-Series BMW sized, which now seems to be going to GM North America as Cadillac has more control over it.

This is a blow for Holden, in my opinion, as they transitioned to an engineering company with the Zeta platform and provided a high quality and extensible platform which is used in the Commodore, Camaro and the stretched platforms such as the Buick in China.

GM has been making decisions all over the place recently; cutting this, cutting that, project so-and-so is on, project so-and-so is off, project so-and-so is on again, etc, etc. Not confidence building for an industry with high capitalization requirements and long lead in times.

Currently the moving of the Alpha engineering to North America is rumored, so maybe Holden will be able to get that business back;

In another rumored move, Global Product Board has taken development of Alpha from GM Holden and has given it to the GM North America and GM Europe operations. This was done to placate Cadillac, who does not want to compromise on Alpha's development for their planned BLS-replacement. What Cadillac hopes to achieve is to get a flexible enough platform to support 4, 6, or 8 cylinder engines, as was deemed necessary by the Wreath & Crest brand.

Holden is in a tough spot. The manufacturing numbers are too low to be sustainable for any long term - though government has been happy to throw money at Holden in Australia - and permanence will most likely be based on niche engineering ability, much like Lotus survives. Losing the Alpha platform's engineering would be a nasty loss. (reply)

cam, 187 words, 0 comments, US Politics, 2008 US Elections

It appears that US Republican Party strategists are worried that the elections will be a bloodbath for Republicans in Congress. The Senate Map at the electoral-vote has the Democrats likely to end up with 58 seats to the Republicans 42. Brutal.

I suspect it will be like the recent elections in Australia where it was a landslide against the Howard Government. A result so encompassing that the Prime Minister even lost his seat; a rude ejection from national politics.

I am pretty confident that the Presidential and Congressional elections will be a landslide to the Democrats. In my opinion, people know in their gut (emotionally) when things aren't right and vote accordingly. Bad governance has consequences. While it may not be immediately obvious and the voters are far more forgiving than they should be, they do end up acting correctly.

The 2006 Congressional elections were a repudiation of the Bush Administration's and Hastert's Republican caucus' bad governance. I think the upcoming elections will be the same.

Bush's legacy will be Democratic control of the executive and legislative; including both houses of Congress with comfortable majorities. (reply)

cam, 266 words, 0 comments, Alan Greenspan, Financial Crisis, Ben Bernanke, Money Printing

The Republican Party's noise machine is getting down to a theme that it was the Democrats fault, and when it wasn't the Democrats it was poor people who took loans that they couldn't afford. Both fail. The Republicans have held the executive the last seven years and controlled Congress for eleven years prior to 2006; so if this mess was to be presciently cleaned up then they had the power.

Same with the poor minorities reading of the issue. ARMs became so pervasive that they were the common mortgage type for the white collar professionals too. I know of people in my industry [software] that have two ARM mortgages on the one house, and others who have ARM mortgages and cannot refinance because they are in negative equity.

There are many culprits for this; but the main one is the Greenspan policy of making money exceptionally cheap through money printing and ignoring inflation. It is no coincidence in m opinion that this all burst at the end of Greenspan's tenure. This means there is both Republican and Democrat culpability in keeping the good times rolling with cheap money. Greenspan's tenure goes across Administrations of both parties.

The issue is that Greenspan's central policy is unchanged under Benanke:

Credit creation is the Fed's signature crisis management policy: Let a bubble inflate, then watch it burst; clean up with lots of dollar bills.

We are seeing the culmination of a failed monetary policy that has been supported by both the American political parties. No President or Congressional leader has had the courage to oppose that policy. (reply)

cam, 210 words, 2 comments, Gated Communities, Energy Communities, Eco, Green, Logrono Montecorvo Eco City project

Gated Communities are a localized and decentralized response to the security issue, real or imagined, that civil and social order is failing and that the state does not have sufficient reach or budget to protect life, limb and property uniformly.

They were decried to an extent as the rich locking themselves away, and in truth it was probably not necessary in countries with functioning governments such as the US or Australia; however in places like Brazil where economic inequality is much more violent, it probably was an essential entrepreneurial response to a weak state.

Ecocuidad, MVRDV + GRAS

I don't see how the eco-green utopias like the Logrono Montecorvo Eco City project are any different to the principles of the gated communities. This is a localized and decentralized response by entrepreneurs, the state and designers to the issue of energy security.

It may be cooler to have a carbon neutral urban node, it may be more ethical to live in a green community; but it is a mechanism to 'design out' through energy isolation; the arbitrary, volatile and potentially destructive possibilities of catastrophic energy failure.

I consider both, gated communities and energy communities, as perfectly valid lifestyle and economic choices. It is an interesting organizational pattern. (reply)

cam, 271 words, 0 comments, Warren Buffet, Financial Crisis

Warren Buffet seems comfortable with the government bailouts of the investment banks. That puts him out of touch democratically. His argument is that it is not Wall Street is getting bailed out, but that the American Economy is basically destroyed unless the US Treasury provides credit. He made on argument that T-bills were 0.25% (doing this from memory so am probably wrong) which is barely better than putting money in under your mattress, consequently, the American economy is to the point of paralysis and capital collapse.

Buffet uses a lot of doomsday language like Pearl Harbor. He is open about his preference for government intervention and his confidence in Paulson.

I don't know, I do well for myself and I am concerned about the cost of living, the rising cost of health care, and having a mortgage liability in a house I am no longer living in (courtesy of divorce). I also did things the right way; I saved up 20% to put down before I bought property. I worked hard and was frugal with my money. I don't see why I should be punished just because I was personally responsible economically.

I am seeing increasing volatility in my life, and am increasingly concerned about it, yet I see people like Buffet saying give us 700 Billion. He is leveraging off my productive ability as a US taxpayer to give the US Treasury the ability to borrow at a cheap interest rate.

Democratically, and politically, Buffet is at odds with the average American experience and concerns. There is so much that is putrid about this whole thing. I am disgusted. (reply)

cam, 350 words, 0 comments, Shoulder Surgery

This is the contraption I came home in on Monday after the surgery. The black is the arm brace, the blue is the cooling pad, the yellow is Iodine (I presume) and the white is the dressing. For added bonus my chest, neck and arm were shaved.

I received a shot in the neck after I was blanked out fortunately the Anaesthesiologist prepared for me it by making my arm twitch to find the correct nerve. Whatever they put in my neck was great, I didn't feel a thing in the shoulder until about 8pm that night when it finally wore off.

I was in rugged pain on Monday night. I couldn't sleep. The pain was constant, agonizing and relentless. I was an angel's breath away from heading off to the emergency room for relief it was so bad. I toughed it out and finally drifted off into sleep at about 4am.

The ensuing nights have been better thankfully. It is four days after the surgery and I am taking the arm out of the brace more and more. I look like a normal person again but there are limitations to what my arm can do.

It is interesting discovering how strength is not just muscle. For instance I cannot lift my right arm above my head and grasp a pipe at about my height infront of me. My shoulder is too weak to lift the weight of my arm. It doesn't hurt. I am just not strong enough. It is an interesting reminder that muscle is but one part of strength and how much the tendons, bones, capsules, etc all combine.

I am very optimistic about the surgery. I dont have the same pain as I used to, and with some bloody mindedness my arm will be back to what it used to be before I damaged it. Considering that I did the majority of the destruction in the shoulder when I was 16 playing Aussie Rules, I suspect I will find that my shoulder will be better than it ever has been in my adult life. (reply)