A quick look at the federal referendums as told by graphs in percent states and electors for.

Wikipedia has an excellent section on the Australian Referendums with plenty of data. These graphs are built from there. The Section 128 of the Australian Constitution states (abbreviated);

This Constitution shall not be altered except in the following manner:--

The proposed law for the alteration thereof must be passed by an absolute majority of each House of the Parliament, ...

And if in a majority of the States a majority of the electors voting approve the proposed law, and if a majority of all the electors voting also approve the proposed law, it shall be presented to the Governor-General ...

This is sometimes called the triple majority requirement. An absolute majority in parliament, the states and electors. Which is fair enough in a federalist system where it is expected that state electors would be precious of state's rights.

One of the questions is, does this triple majority make the constitution too difficult to alter, and is this why the High Court has taken to altering constitutional practice outside of referendums; and why the federal government elicits signed agreeance from the states to allow the federal government to oversee what are state responsibilities rather than constitutionally required federal responsibilities.

% States

The referendum which allowed the territories to vote did not allow the territories to count toward a state majority in referendums. So throughout federal referendum history, four of six states must pass a referendum.

The columns marked in green were successful. Note that there were a lot that achieved three out of six states in the for column, but that was not sufficient enough for a majority.

% Electors

Since 1977 the territories count toward the national total for referendums.

The green columns note the successful referendums. An interesting pattern is that many of the referendums hovered just under the fifty percent mark and some over. There are relatively few referendums that had the popular vote and not the state majority, but many of them had high 40s support and no state majority.

What is obvious, is that the referendums which did pass into constitutional change were very popular.

The small number of Australian states can make the results for referendums seem wildly for or against, despite the pattern of the elector's voting to be predominantly be mildly for or mildly against. This makes constitutional change that sparks ambivalence in even a small minority difficult to pass.

These two graphs alone don't answer the question's posed earlier in the article, a closer examination of what the referendum's were, on what topics, and what they represented is needed. I will deal with that in another article.

cam
Cam Riley: South Sea Republic. Freedom, liberty, equity and an Australian Republic.

Comments

  • cam . # .
    Grouping pattern: There also appeared to be a \'grouping\' pattern. Several referendums that were voted on at the same time got similar popular vote results. This implies some weighting goes on voters minds when they vote on these things and it carries through to other - less popular? - referendums on the same ballot.

    There is a question here for republicans. Did the unpopular preamble referendum which came from Howard\'s fingers have a negative effect on the republic voting simply by being grouped with the republic referendum?

    It is probably a good policy to only put one referendum on a ballot at a time anyway.

    cam
  • dlatimer . # .
    The pattern of referenda: It is tempting to look into the statistics of referenda and try to come to some conclusion to take advangage of strategic voting. For example having several items on the one ballot was very successful in 1977, when three referenda where passed in one hit.

    Rightly or wrongly, I believe that successful change depends upon the merits the proposal. I do not know if I am right, but I believe that a brilliant republican proposal would not have been sunk by a poor preamble.
  • cam . # .
    One of the referendums tried to: they put rights in with monopolies and all the others that had failed repeatedly.

    A quick look the other day when categorising them showed the majority of the referendums to be about centralisation, IIRC I counted about 24 of them or so to be about increasing federal power. Not many were about increasing representation or enfranchisement (a couple were), including rights (a couple were), improved governance etc. A couple were aesthetics too.

    They were mainly about centralism, which were the ones that got rejected. Somehow the feds found a way to centralise without the inconvenience of referendums.

    I believe that successful change depends upon the merits the proposal

    I agree.

    cam
  • dlatimer . # .
    Costello and Federalism: What you say about centralism dominating and failing to win referendums is exactly right. But there are exceptions even to that.
     * 1946 social services power
     * 1967 aborigines included in race power

    Your comment puts Peter Costello\'s push for a new federalism into its proper light. Nobody would believe it would be successful at referendum, and it is not designed to win the cooperation of the states (under s51.37)
  • cam . # .
    I would categorise the Aboriginal: referendum as one of increasing franchise/inclusion etc rather than centralisation.

    I would also include the state debts referendums, which passed, under the centralisation banner. It could be argued that those referendums successfully passing led to the Lyons vs Lang incident which nearly plunged Australia into civil war.

    The odd one is the territorians getting to vote in referendums, it failed the first time but passed the second go. Wish I knew more of its circumstances of failing.

    cam
  • dlatimer . # .
    I\'ll go along with this.: I attended the ARM 15th Birthday Event last night at the Menzies Hotel in Sydney. Republicans have a habit of picking venues with ironic names.

    Anyway, it was quite an occasion. Food good, wine good and even my wife got through the speeches without complaining. The ARM probably raised some money too.